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New Yorkers will learn the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who governs and protects the nation's largest city at a moment when the former president has vowed to send armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The election has become an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has led his rival by double-digits in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an race that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

National Implications

Should the progressive secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a platform that has resonated with voters' frustration at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has created an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a surprising comeback win, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, lackluster resistance – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani directly. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, few had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has faced difficulties in recent days, after footage emerged appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd